Financial Projections

Path to profitability and scale

Path B: Service Business (Most Realistic)

High-margin, profitable business within 18 months

Metric Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
REVENUE $75,000 $250,000 $528,000
Recruiting Profiles $45,000 (200 @ $349) $225,000 (600 @ $375) $399,000 (1,000 @ $399)
Course Sales $15,000 (150 @ $99) $40,000 (400 @ $99) $49,500 (500 @ $99)
Consulting & Other $15,000 $60,000 $80,000
EXPENSES $50,000 $125,000 $250,000
Development & Tech $20,000 $15,000 $25,000
Team Salaries $0 (founder only) $100,000 (2 consultants) $175,000 (3 FTE)
Marketing & Sales $15,000 $20,000 $40,000
Operations & Overhead $15,000 $15,000 $35,000
NET PROFIT $25,000 (33%) $125,000 (50%) $278,000 (53%)

Key Assumptions (Path B)

  • Founder does recruiting consultations manually Year 1, hire consultants Year 2
  • Focus on high-touch service business before building complex platform
  • Organic marketing + content creation drive most customer acquisition
  • High margins (50%+) typical for service businesses
  • Low fixed costs, minimal infrastructure investment needed
Exit Valuation (Year 3): At $528K revenue with 53% margins, business valued at $1-2M (3-4x revenue multiple for profitable service businesses)

Path C: Venture Scale Platform

5-year projection to $10M+ revenue

Metric Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Active Users 500 2,000 5,000 10,000 20,000
Paying Players 150 (30%) 800 (40%) 2,500 (50%) 6,000 (60%) 13,000 (65%)
ARPU (Players) $150 $200 $250 $300 $350
Player Revenue $22,500 $160,000 $625,000 $1,800,000 $4,550,000
Active Coaches 50 200 500 1,000 2,000
Avg Coach Sub $100/mo $125/mo $150/mo $150/mo $150/mo
Coach Revenue $60,000 $300,000 $900,000 $1,800,000 $3,600,000
Other Revenue $52,500 $240,000 $625,000 $1,200,000 $2,450,000
TOTAL REVENUE $135,000 $700,000 $2,150,000 $4,800,000 $10,600,000
EXPENSES $550,000 $850,000 $1,800,000 $3,400,000 $6,400,000
EBITDA -$415,000 -$150,000 $350,000 $1,400,000 $4,200,000
Burn Rate -$35K/mo -$12.5K/mo Profitable Profitable Profitable

Key Assumptions (Path C)

  • Conversion rates improve as product matures (30% → 65% paying)
  • ARPU increases with premium features and better matching algorithms
  • Coach adoption accelerates with network effects (50 → 2,000)
  • Profitability achieved by Year 3 as revenue scales faster than costs
  • Expenses heavily weighted toward engineering and customer acquisition
Exit Valuation (Year 4-5): At $5-10M revenue with strong growth, acquisition value of $20-50M (3-5x revenue multiple typical for SaaS/marketplace platforms)

Funding Requirements & Use of Funds

Bootstrap / Friends & Family

$0-50K

Use of Funds:

  • MVP development: $20K
  • Initial marketing: $10K
  • Legal, hosting, tools: $10K
  • Working capital: $10K

Milestones:

  • Launch app with 100 users
  • Complete 20 paid profiles
  • Validate product-market fit

Seed Round

$250-500K

Use of Funds:

  • Product development: $150-200K
  • Go-to-market: $100-150K
  • Operations: $50-100K

Milestones:

  • 1,000 active users
  • $25K+ MRR
  • 70%+ retention rate
  • Clear path to Series A

Series A

$2-5M

Use of Funds:

  • Engineering (40%): $800K-2M
  • Sales/Marketing (40%): $800K-2M
  • Team expansion (15%): $300K-750K
  • Working capital (5%): $100K-250K

Prerequisites:

  • $100K+ MRR ($1.2M ARR)
  • Proven unit economics
  • 40%+ MoM growth
  • Strong team in place

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Target Industry Benchmark Why It Matters
LTV:CAC Ratio 10-15x 3-5x (good), 5x+ (excellent) Shows customer lifetime value far exceeds acquisition cost
CAC Payback Period < 6 months 12-18 months typical How quickly we recover customer acquisition costs
Gross Margin 60-70% 50-70% for SaaS Efficiency of delivering service after direct costs
Net Revenue Retention 110%+ 100%+ (good), 120%+ (best) Existing customers growing revenue through upgrades
Monthly Churn Rate < 3% 5-7% typical B2C Customer retention and satisfaction
Rule of 40 > 40% 40%+ (healthy growth + profitability) Growth rate + profit margin combined metric
Financial Health: Our target metrics (10x+ LTV:CAC, <6 month payback, 70% retention) significantly exceed industry benchmarks, indicating a fundamentally sound and scalable business model.

Risks & Mitigation

Risk Impact Probability Mitigation Strategy
Incumbents copy us High Medium-High Build verified data moat quickly; focus on community/trust; stay nimble; consider partnership vs. competition
Slow coach adoption High Medium Make it free for coaches initially; partner with associations; demonstrate ROI; build player base first
Seasonal revenue fluctuations Medium High Subscription model smooths cash flow; expand to multiple sports; international markets offset seasons
Can't achieve scale economics Medium-High Medium Start as high-touch service business; gradually automate; bootstrap as far as possible; clear unit economics before scaling spend
Market too fragmented Medium Medium Focus on baseball only initially; start with one geography; once proven, expand methodically with playbook approach

Exit Scenarios & Valuations

Strategic Acquisition

$10-50M

Likely Acquirers:

  • NCSA / IMG Academy
  • Hudl
  • Stack Sports
  • Perfect Game / PBR

Trigger:

$5M+ revenue, 10K+ users, defensible tech moat, demonstrated coach adoption

Multiple:

3-5x revenue

Service Business Sale

$1-2M

Buyer Profile:

  • Individual entrepreneur
  • PE firm acquiring services
  • Roll-up consolidator

Trigger:

$250-500K profit, established processes, documented customer base

Multiple:

2-4x annual profit or 1-2x revenue

Acqui-hire

$1-5M

Scenario:

  • Product doesn't scale
  • But team is strong
  • Larger company wants talent

Typical Structure:

$1-2M per key team member, founder gets role at acquirer

Continue Growth

$100M+

If Exceptional Execution:

  • Reach $50M+ revenue
  • Multi-sport success
  • International expansion
  • Category dominance

Path:

Continue growth, later-stage funding, potential IPO

Probability:

Low, but possible with strong execution

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