Path to profitability and scale
High-margin, profitable business within 18 months
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE | $75,000 | $250,000 | $528,000 |
| Recruiting Profiles | $45,000 (200 @ $349) | $225,000 (600 @ $375) | $399,000 (1,000 @ $399) |
| Course Sales | $15,000 (150 @ $99) | $40,000 (400 @ $99) | $49,500 (500 @ $99) |
| Consulting & Other | $15,000 | $60,000 | $80,000 |
| EXPENSES | $50,000 | $125,000 | $250,000 |
| Development & Tech | $20,000 | $15,000 | $25,000 |
| Team Salaries | $0 (founder only) | $100,000 (2 consultants) | $175,000 (3 FTE) |
| Marketing & Sales | $15,000 | $20,000 | $40,000 |
| Operations & Overhead | $15,000 | $15,000 | $35,000 |
| NET PROFIT | $25,000 (33%) | $125,000 (50%) | $278,000 (53%) |
5-year projection to $10M+ revenue
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Users | 500 | 2,000 | 5,000 | 10,000 | 20,000 |
| Paying Players | 150 (30%) | 800 (40%) | 2,500 (50%) | 6,000 (60%) | 13,000 (65%) |
| ARPU (Players) | $150 | $200 | $250 | $300 | $350 |
| Player Revenue | $22,500 | $160,000 | $625,000 | $1,800,000 | $4,550,000 |
| Active Coaches | 50 | 200 | 500 | 1,000 | 2,000 |
| Avg Coach Sub | $100/mo | $125/mo | $150/mo | $150/mo | $150/mo |
| Coach Revenue | $60,000 | $300,000 | $900,000 | $1,800,000 | $3,600,000 |
| Other Revenue | $52,500 | $240,000 | $625,000 | $1,200,000 | $2,450,000 |
| TOTAL REVENUE | $135,000 | $700,000 | $2,150,000 | $4,800,000 | $10,600,000 |
| EXPENSES | $550,000 | $850,000 | $1,800,000 | $3,400,000 | $6,400,000 |
| EBITDA | -$415,000 | -$150,000 | $350,000 | $1,400,000 | $4,200,000 |
| Burn Rate | -$35K/mo | -$12.5K/mo | Profitable | Profitable | Profitable |
$0-50K
$250-500K
$2-5M
| Metric | Target | Industry Benchmark | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTV:CAC Ratio | 10-15x | 3-5x (good), 5x+ (excellent) | Shows customer lifetime value far exceeds acquisition cost |
| CAC Payback Period | < 6 months | 12-18 months typical | How quickly we recover customer acquisition costs |
| Gross Margin | 60-70% | 50-70% for SaaS | Efficiency of delivering service after direct costs |
| Net Revenue Retention | 110%+ | 100%+ (good), 120%+ (best) | Existing customers growing revenue through upgrades |
| Monthly Churn Rate | < 3% | 5-7% typical B2C | Customer retention and satisfaction |
| Rule of 40 | > 40% | 40%+ (healthy growth + profitability) | Growth rate + profit margin combined metric |
| Risk | Impact | Probability | Mitigation Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incumbents copy us | High | Medium-High | Build verified data moat quickly; focus on community/trust; stay nimble; consider partnership vs. competition |
| Slow coach adoption | High | Medium | Make it free for coaches initially; partner with associations; demonstrate ROI; build player base first |
| Seasonal revenue fluctuations | Medium | High | Subscription model smooths cash flow; expand to multiple sports; international markets offset seasons |
| Can't achieve scale economics | Medium-High | Medium | Start as high-touch service business; gradually automate; bootstrap as far as possible; clear unit economics before scaling spend |
| Market too fragmented | Medium | Medium | Focus on baseball only initially; start with one geography; once proven, expand methodically with playbook approach |
$10-50M
$5M+ revenue, 10K+ users, defensible tech moat, demonstrated coach adoption
3-5x revenue
$1-2M
$250-500K profit, established processes, documented customer base
2-4x annual profit or 1-2x revenue
$1-5M
$1-2M per key team member, founder gets role at acquirer
$100M+
Continue growth, later-stage funding, potential IPO
Low, but possible with strong execution
Let's discuss funding needs and financial projections in detail
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